How technologies emerging over the coming decades will undermine military stability while causing economic and political turmoil. The need to move beyond deterrence to an integrated international security system. Article by Mark Avrum Gubrud, Center for S http://www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Papers/Gubrud/index.html
A view of conflict and its strategic environment two decades ahead. Author: C.J. Dick. Published by The Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK, 2002. http://www.csrc.ac.uk/pdfs/M25-cjd.pdf
States the difference between the conduct of war and the nature of war, and its practical consequences in the information age. Author: James M.Dubik, Landpower Essay, Institute of Landwarfare, July 2002. http://www.ausa.org/PDFdocs/lpe02-3.pdf
Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation. Opinion article by J. Arquilla and D. Ronfeldt, Aviation Week & Space Technolo http://www.rand.org/commentary/100703AWST.html
Collection of articles about doctrine of future types and causes of warfare, future threats of security environment, short-term future challenges for possible local war, and long-term future warfare from the point of view of several Chinese authors. Publi http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndu/chinview/chinacont.html
The changes required in US military to cope with the set of challenges that the early 21st will pose, by Glenn C. Buchan, RAND, for the Conference on Analyzing Conflict: Insights from the Natural and Social Sciences, UCLA, April 2003. http://fac.cgu.edu/~zakp/conferences/AC/papers/Buchan.pdf
Describes how events in the Twenty-first Century will test the limits to American strength but not its fundamentals and postulates that these tests will underscore the inability of technology to overcome all challenges, by Jeremy Black, February 2002. http://www.fpri.org/ww/0304.200202.black.warandstrategy21stcentury.html
The zigzag evolution of chemical and biological weapons in the 20th century give causes for both optimism and pessimism in the course it will take in the 21st, by Greg Goebel, Jun 2003. http://www.vectorsite.net/twgas5.html
Postulates that today's global environment is defined by the 4th Generation War reality, with nation-states confronting criminal enterprises, fanatical opportunists, and terrorists whose gang-like networks transcend national boundaries. All these actors o http://d-n-i.net/fcs/comments/c490.htm
Article by Jack Shanahan, Chet Richards and Franklin Spinney, 2002. Describes fourth-generation warfare that pits nations against non-national organizations or networks that include not only fundamentalist extremists, but also ethnic factions, mafias and http://www.cdi.org/mrp/4GW.cfm
The article shows how the end of the Cold War created a new-world order and presented new challenges for future leaders, such as countering the ever growing terrorist threat. Accompanying this threat is a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, now http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/dickinson.htm
The article describes the state of chaos of the post-Cold War world, with a steady increase of entropy and anomie, and a crisis of former models of leadership. Also, analyzes the nature of future conflicts and the role of United States and Europe as key p http://www.centrotocqueville.org.ar/htm/htm/nab/nb10050401in.htm
Shows how the process of developing and building new weapons, as does the process of recruiting and training new military officers takes decades, so that, leaders need to be futurists by making statements, implicitly or explicitly, about what they think w http://www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/050218.html
Remarks by John Gannon from the National Intelligence Council to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, about the globalization of the security environment and the implications for counterproliferation, May 2000. http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/cia/53100CIA.pdf
A report about the future consequences of water scarcity worldwide. It states the urgency of confronting the potential crisis and conflicts on all fronts, from research to policy and action. By Panel on Biotechnology of the World Commission on Water for t http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/Vision/Documents/Biotech-report.PDF
An article that intends to anticipate what the future conflicts will be like. Introduces the concept of fourth generation war. By William S. Lind, Keith Nightengale, John F. Schmitt, Joseph W. Sutton and Gary I. Wilson, published in Marine Corps Gazette, http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/4th_gen_war_gazette.htm
Information about a research project aimed at covering influences that would shape the world to the year 2020. Contains papers about the nature of future conflicts. Sponsored by the US National Intelligence Council. http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html
Sam Tangredi presents a set of assumptions and possible scenarios about the future security environment for the next 25 years. National Defense University, USA. McNair Paper No. 63, November 2000. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/McNair/mcnair63/m63cvr.html
Shows the change of US strategic vision of national and global security after September 11 attacks, by Steven J. Tomisek. Strategic Forum No.189, February 2002. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF189/sf189.htm
A paper showing a response to the question of "How can the United States best develop security cooperation within the Americas?" by Col. Joseph R. Nunez. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, August 2002. http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=15
A study about the required post-Cold War military transformation which takes into account the changing nature of war and the experiences of past conflicts. By Anthony C. Zinni, Strategic Forum, US National Defense University, July 2001. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF181/sf181.htm
A paper where the author, Robert M. Steele, examines two paradigm shifts--one in relation to the threat and a second in relation to intelligence methods-- while offering a new model for threat analysis and a new model for intelligence operations in non-tr http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=217
The US 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS) identified the proliferation, privatization, and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups and rogue states as the critical nontraditional threat of the 21st century. Published in September http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=412
Examines the performance of U.S. forces in three major post-Cold War military conflicts to identify commonalities and trends that may have implications for the conduct of warfare in the early 21st Century. By Christopher J. Bowie, Robert P. Haffa Jr. and http://www.analysiscenter.northropgrumman.com/files/future_war.pdf
Collection of essays including 'The New Evils of the 21st Century' by Robert D. Kaplan; 'Weapons of Mass Destruction and Physical Heritage of the Cold War' by W.K.H. Panofsky and 'Group Loyalty and Ethnic Violence' by Donald L. Horowitz. [PDF] http://www.amacad.org/publications/violent.aspx
The author alerts about the dangers of the contemporary media age, in which events across the world are instantly brought before vast international audiences, for example, that tomorrow’s wars could be at risk of being overly influenced by the views of http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/Vol2Issue16/vol2issue16howardpfv.html
